Study Area

The study area is Nigeria, located in West Africa, spanning approximately 923,769 square kilometers, bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. A base map of Nigeria showing its 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) will be used to illustrate spatial boundaries for population analysis. Each state is demarcated with geographic coordinates to serve as spatial units for comparative analysis.

Problem StatementNigeria, Africa's most populous country, has experienced significant population growth, urbanization, and regional density disparities between 2006 and 2023. However, there is insufficient spatial visualization to monitor how this demographic change affects resource allocation, infrastructure planning, and sustainable development.

GoalTo generate and compare population density maps for Nigeria in 2006 and 2023, overlaying them with surface area distribution. The objective is to identify spatial patterns of population concentration, detect high-growth zones, and highlight potential stress areas in infrastructure and services.

Tools used

• ArcMap – for spatial analysis and mapping

• Microsoft Excel – for data preparation

Data Sources

The following are the sources of the dataset used for the project

• Population Data 2006 – National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

• Population Estimate 2023 – National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

• Administrative boundaries – Grid3 website Administrative Dataset was extracted (shapefile Format)

• Surface Area per State – National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

• Coordinate reference system – WGS 1984 UTM Zone 32N

Project Methodology

The following were the methodology employed

1.       Data Collection, Cleaning and Import

·         Extracted 2006 census data and 2023 population estimates from National Bureau of Statistics.

. Imported non-spatial attribute data in (CSV) into ArcMap environment

·         Population records were matched and joined with state polygons using a common identifier (State Name) in ArcMap environment.

1. Map Creation

·         Create choropleth map showing population density in 2006 and 2023 and Surface area distribution.

·         Create a map to highlight areas of high population growth.

·         Visualize surface area distribution by state to provide geographical context.

Project Key Findings

• Population Increase: Nigeria’s population rose from approximately 9.4 million in 2006 to an estimated 16. 3 million in 2023, indicating a growth rate of 3.28% from 2006 to 2023 with the growth of 6.9 million people in 17 years.

• High-Density Zones:States such as Lagos, Kano, and Anambra displayed very high population densities in both years, with significant increases by 2023.

• Low-Density but Large Area States:States in the north-east and north-west like (Borno, Yobe, and Niger States) have large land masses but relatively low population densities, indicating underutilized space.

• Spatial Disparities:Southern states tend to have higher densities due to urbanization and economic opportunities, while northern and central regions remain more sparsely populated.

• Planning Implications:The Findings highlight the need for targeted development strategies, especially in high-growth urban zones and underdeveloped rural regions.